Outdoor Track vs Indoor Track

My indoor track season is over. Here's my performance list for the season:

5000m, 15:28.34; IAAF 759
December 4, 2010; Reggie Lewis

3000m, 8:54.56; IAAF 776
January 23, 2011; Harvard

5000m, 15:16.60; IAAF 795
January 29, 2011; BU

5000m, 15:12.14; IAAF 808
February 12, 2010; BU

Note that I included the IAAF score for each performance. Scores are listed in the 2011 IAAF Scoring Tables. The tables were created by Dr Bojidar Spiriev (1932-2010) for the IAAF to compare results achieved in different athletic events. According to the author, the scores are based on "exact statistical data." I'll assume he did his due diligence.

One use for these scores is to predict performances in the near future, assuming the proper training was done for the event in question. For example, predicting a 10,000m performance from its equivalent 1,500m performance may not be very helpful if the 1,500m performance was achieved from a training period that was not high in mileage and aerobic development. Since I will be focusing on the 5,000m and 10,000m this Spring and Summer though, we can disregard this issue.

According to the Outdoor Scoring Table, my best score of 808 equates to the following performances:

5,000m, 15:00.68
10,000m, 31:48.23

This is interesting. Scores and performances are not equal on the Indoor and Outdoor tables. If scores from Indoor and Outdoor indicate equivalent performances though, I will run faster outdoors than I did indoors - the table says so, damnit! I would certainly like to believe this. However, sometimes circumstances in Massachusetts tip the scales in favor of indoor track.

Indoor track in Boston is not slow. Most of the tracks are banked and very fast. The meets I ran in were very big and competitive, including fast collegiates and post-collegiates from all over. Plus, conditions indoors are always good. This is a huge factor. Good racing conditions in the Spring and Summer are not nearly as consistent. You never know when it will be hot, humid, rainy, or windy. Worse, it's usually some combination of those conditions. Sometimes I wish outdoor track in Massachusetts was in the Fall.

Nevertheless, I do believe I can run faster outdoors than indoors this year, weather be damned. My first outdoor track race is a New Balance Twilight meet on May 14, and I will probably do the 5,000m. That is 13 weeks after the BU Valentine meet! I certainly don't plan on losing fitness during that time. Instead, I expect to be fitter and sharper by that point. With excellent training and preparation, those IAAF score 808 performances should be a piece of cake.